Net Permanent and Long-term (PLT) is a record of border crossings and stated intent. Net Overseas Migration (NOM) is the measure of how migration contributes to population growth.

The key difference lies in the “12/16 month rule.” To be counted in NOM, a person must actually remain in Australia for a total of 12 months within a 16-month period.

For example, a student might arrive with the intention of staying for three years (a long-term arrival), but if they return home after six months due to a change in circumstances, they never become part of the NOM. This lag means that NOM figures are often revised months or even years after the initial arrivals are recorded.

When headlines report “record migration” in Australia, they often conflate these two different sets of data.

Why migration numbers can be misleading

The raw numbers of people crossing the border are often used as a proxy for how many people are moving to Australia to stay. However, the data provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics regarding permanent and long-term arrivals is based on “intentions” stated on passenger cards.

A long-term arrival is defined as someone who intends to stay in Australia for 12 months or more, such as a student or a worker on a subclass 482 visa. A long-term departure is the opposite. While these numbers provide a real-time snapshot of border pressure, they are not the official population count.

How these statistics impact visa processing

The Australian government uses these statistics to adjust “migration settings,” which can directly affect how quickly your application is handled. When NOM is perceived as too high, the Department of Home Affairs may implement stricter processing priorities to manage the population flow.

Currently, under Ministerial Direction No. 105, the government has prioritised specific sectors regardless of the total migration numbers.

High-priority areas include positions in designated regional areas and occupations in healthcare or teaching (Source: DOHA). If you are applying for a visa outside these high-priority groups, your processing time may exceed the standard timelines because the government is using these priorities as a throttle to manage the total NOM.

Insight for visa applicants

NOM can remain high even if the government stops issuing new visas, simply because people already in the country are extending their stay on bridging visas or moving between temporary categories.

Many arrivals are existing residents returning from long stays abroad or students whose work rights are limited. Working with an experienced migration agent is the best way to determine if a specific visa pathway is open or if it is currently being restricted to balance the official NOM figures.

Advice for sponsors and applicants

Because the government reacts to NOM figures with a delay, policy changes often feel sudden. If you are sponsoring a worker, it is vital to ensure your application is “decision-ready.” According to the Department of Home Affairs, incomplete applications are the primary cause of delays, especially for subclasses like the 186 or 482.

Contact This is Australia to discuss how current migration trends affect your lodgement strategy. Call +61 (0)7 5592 0755 or contact our team to discuss your next steps.